விலைவாசியை உயர்த்த போகும் பட்ஜெட்

விலைவாசியை உயர்த்த போகும் பட்ஜெட்

நிதியமைச்சர் அறிவித்த இந்திய பட்ஜெட்டின் வரவு செலவின்
சுருக்கம் :

அரசின் வருமானம் : ரூ.6,41,079 கோடிகள்
நிக‌ர‌ செலவு : ரூ.10,20,838 கோடிகள்
ப‌ற்றாக்குறை : ரூ.3,79,759 கோடிகள் (அனுமான‌ம்)

அதாவ‌து சுமார் 4 லச்சம் கோடி துண்டு விழுகிற‌து. பெட்சிட் அல்ல‌து
ப‌டுதா என்றும் சொல்லாம். அதை க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கித்தான் ஈடு செய்கிற‌து
ந‌ம‌து அர‌சு. மொத்த கடன் சுமை கூடிக்கொண்டே செல்கிறது. இதுவ‌ரை
வாங்கிய‌ க‌ட‌ன்க‌ளுக்கான‌ இந்த‌ வ‌ருட‌ வ‌ட்டித் தொகை : சுமார் 3,00,000
கோடிகள். மொத்த கடன் எவ்வளவு என்பதை சரியாக கண்டுபிடிக்க
முடியவில்லை. வட்டி தொகையில் இருந்து யூகிக்கலாம்.

அர‌சு ப‌ற்றாக்குறைய‌ க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கியும், நோட்ட‌டித்தும் செல‌வு
செய்கிற‌து. அத‌னால் தான் விலைவாசி க‌ண்ட‌ப‌டி உய‌ர்கிற‌து. இன்னும்
இர‌ண்டு ஆண்டு க‌ழித்து இந்த‌ ப‌ட்ஜெட்டினால் விலைவாசி உய‌ர்வு
ஏற்படும். உட‌னே தெரியாது. ஆனால் அன்று அத‌ற்கான‌ கார‌ணிக‌ள்
இது போன்ற‌ ப‌ட்ஜெட் ப‌ற்றாகுறைக‌ள் என்று பொது புத்தியில்
அறிய‌ப்ப‌டாம‌ல், இத‌ர‌ கார‌ணிக‌ள் ம‌ட்டும் விவாதிக்க‌ப்ப‌டும். பார்க்க‌ :

விலைவாசி ஏன் உயர்கிறது ?
http://nellikkani.blogspot.com/2007/07/blog-post_17.html

பொருளாதார‌ ம‌ந்த‌த்தை நீக்க‌வும், நாட்டின் பொருளாதார‌ம் "வ‌ள‌ர‌வும்"
இது போன்ற‌ ப‌ற்றாகுறை ப‌ட்ஜெட்டுக‌ள் தேவை என்று ஒரு எண்ண‌
ஓட்ட‌ம் இருக்கிற‌து. லார்ட் கீயின்ஸ் என்ற‌ பொருளாதார‌ நிபுண‌ரின்
வ‌ழிமுறை இது. ஆனால் அவ‌ர் சொன்ன பற்றாக்குறை பட்ஜெட் விகுத‌ம்
மிக‌ மிக‌ குறைவான‌து.இந்தியாவில் மொத்த ஜி.டி.பியில் சுமார் 10 முத‌ல்
12 ச‌த‌வீத‌ அளவில் மத்திய‌ / மாநில‌ ம‌ற்றும் மான்ய‌ ப‌ட்ஜெட்டுக‌ளின்
ப‌ற்றாகுறை உள்ள‌து. அது தொட‌ர்ந்து விலைவாசி உய‌ர்வை அதிக‌ப்ப‌டுத்தி,
விவ‌சாயிக‌ளையும், ஏழைக‌ளையும், ந‌டுத்த‌ர‌ ம‌க்க‌ளையும் க‌டும்
துன்ப‌த்திற்க்காளாக்கி, எதிர் ம‌றையான‌ விளைவுக‌ளையே த‌ரும்.
க‌ட‌னாளியான‌ அர‌சு, மேலும் ப‌ல‌ ல‌ச்ச‌ம் கோடிக‌ள் க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கி,
பொருளாதார‌த்தை மேம்ப‌டுத்துவ‌து ந‌ட‌வாத‌ காரிய‌ம். வ‌ள‌ர்ந்த‌ நாடுக‌ள்
அளவு இந்திய‌ பொருளாதார‌ம் பாதிக்க‌ ப‌ட‌ வில்லை. பொருளாதார‌
வ‌ள‌ர்சி விகுத‌ம் தான் குறைந்து உள்ள‌து. ப‌ற்றாகுறை ப‌ட்ஜெட்டுக‌க‌ள்
இல்லாம‌லேயே, சில ஆண்டுகளில் அது தானாக‌வே ச‌ரியாவிடும்.
ஆனால் க‌ட‌ன் சுமையும், விலைவாசி உய‌ர்வும் அதிக‌ரிக்கும்
ப‌ற்றாக்குறை ப‌ட்ஜெடுக‌ள் ந‌ம் சாப‌க்கேடுக‌ள்.

மேலும், இந்த‌ ஆண்டு ராணுவ‌ச் செல‌வு : 1,41,703 கோடிக‌ள். சென்ற‌
ஆண்டை விட‌ சுமார் 36,000 கோடிக‌ள் அதிக‌ம். அக்கிர‌ம‌மான‌ த‌ண்ட‌ச்
செல‌வு. ந‌ம‌க்கு சிறிதும் க‌ட்டுப‌டியாகாத‌ வெட்டி வீராப்பு .ஆட‌ப்ப‌ர‌ம்.
இது போல் ப‌ல‌ துறைக‌ளிலும் வெட்டிச் செல‌வுக‌ள். அதை குறைக்க‌
வேண்டும் முத‌லில்.

இவ்வ‌ள‌வு செல‌வுக‌ளும் க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கித்தான் செய்கிறோம். க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கி
செல‌வு செய்தால் எதிர்கால‌ம் என்ன‌ ஆகும் ? த‌னி ம‌னித‌ன் இது போல்
க‌ட‌ன் வாங்கினால் என்ன‌ ஆவானோ, அதே தான் அர‌சிற்க்கு ஏற்ப‌டும்
என்ப‌தே அடிப்ப‌டை பொருளாதார‌ விதி. அது ப‌ல‌ருக்கும் புரிவ‌தில்லை.

11 comments:

K.R.அதியமான் said...

http://indiabudget.nic.in/ub2009-10/afs.htm

Union Budget 2009-2010
Annual Financial Statement

Statement I - Consolidated Fund of India
> Revenue Account - Receipts
> Revenue Account - Disbursements
> Capital Account - Receipts
> Capital Account - Disbursements
Statement IA - Disbursements 'Charged' on the Consolidated Fund of India
Statement II - Contingency Fund of India - Receipts and Disbursements
Statement III - Public Account of India
> Receipts
> Disbursements
Receipts & Expenditure of Union Territories without Legislature

K.R.அதியமான் said...

Dear Athiyaman,

Credit can be a very egalitarian instrument. If credit is given to a man of ability, it would help him to start or expand his industry. Without such loans, he could never come up in life. He can produce enough to repay the loan with interest.

The same is true of deficit financing. I do not find any fault with a huge deficit in a depression year. If the money is used in a productive manner, the quantum of deficit does not really matter. If sufficient assets are created, then they can produce more to repay the deficit and also the interest. Keynes in fact recommended that the government must prepare plans of highly productive projects in advance during the years of prosperity for taking them up for execution when depression starts!

But what we find in reality is that the money is wasted in handouts and in unproductive "popular' vote catching activities. In such a situation, I am in full agreement with you that we are penalising the future generations by spending extravagantly at present.

S.Neelakantan

K.R.அதியமான் said...

http://www.egyankosh.ac.in/bitstream/123456789/25383/1/Unit-14.pdf.


14.4 DEFICIT FINANCING AND INFLATION

Deficit financing in a developing country is inflationary while it is
not so in an advanced country. In an advanced country the government
resorts to deficit financing for boosting up the economy. There is
alround unemployment of resources which can be employed by raising
government investment through deficit financing. The result will be an
increase in output, income and employment and there is no danger of
inflation. The increase in money supply leading to demand brings about
a corresponding increase in the supply of commodities and hence there
is no increase ' in price level.

But, when, in a developing economy, the government resorts to deficit
financing for financing economic development the effects of this on
the economy are quite different. Public outlays financed by
newly-created money immediately create monetary incomes and, due to
low standards of living and high marginal propensity to consume in
general, the demand for consumption of goods and services increases.
But if the public investment is on capital goods, then the increased
demand for the consumer goods will not be satisfied and prices will
rise. Even if the outlay is on the production of consumption goods the
prices may rise because the monetary incomes will rise immediately
while the production of consumer goods will take time and in the
meanwhile prices will rise. Though investment is being continuously
raised (through taxation, borrowing and external assistance), most of
it goes to industrieq with long gestation period and for providing
basic infrastructure. Though there is effective demand, resource5 lie
under or unemployed. Lack of capital, technical skill, entrepreneurial
skills etc. are responsible in many cases for unemployment or
underemployment of resources in a developing economy. Under such
conditions, when deficit financing is resortea to, it is sure to lead
to inflationary conditions.

Besides, in a developing economy, during the process of economic
development, the velocity of circulation of money increases through
the operation of the multiplier effect. This factor is also
inflationary in character because, on balance, effective demand
increases more than the initial increases in money supply. Deficit
financing gives rise to credit creation by commercial banks because
their liquidity is increased by the creation of new money. This shows
that in a developing economy total money supply tends to increase much
more than the amount of deficit financing, which also aggravates
inflationary conditions. The use of deficit financing being
expansionary becomes inflationary also on the basis of quantity theory
of money.

K.R.அதியமான் said...

http://www.egyankosh.ac.in/bitstream/123456789/25383/1/Unit-14.pdf.

14.5 DEFICIT FINANCING AND PRICE BEHAVIOUR IN INDIA Price stability is an essential condition for stability in economic life as well as economic growth. On the contrary, fluctuations in prices create an atmosphere of uncertainty which is not conducive to development activity. When we examine the price mcvements during the planning period in India, there are three clear trends. First during the first plan period (i.e. 1951 to 1956) the general price level had fallen. From 1955-56 to 1965-66. the prices rose steadily at an annual rate of
6%. Finally. from 1966-67 onwards (except 1975-76 and 1977-78) prices
rose at the rate of about 0% per annum and now it is in the double
digit range.

Deficit financing as a tool for covering the financial gap in India
was introduced at the time of formulation of first five year plan. During the first plan deficit financing was of the order of Rs. 333 crore and the money supply with the public increased by about 22 per cent. Since this expansion in the supply of money fell short of the increase in output, the general price level came down by about 18 per cent. During second plan. actual deficit financing was less than the
targeted amount,

The third plan was very abnormal (adverse weather conditions. 1962
Chinese \ aggression. 1965 Pakistan war). Deficit financing during the third plan amounted to Rs. 1333 crore - more than double the target. Money supply with the public increased more rapidly.

In the fourth plan (1969-71), the amount of deficit financing stood at Rs. 2060 crorc -about two-and-a-half times the target. Money supply
increased from 6387 crore to Rs. 11,172 crore at the end of 1973-74.
Prices increased by 47% approximately. No doubt there were certain factors beyond the control of the government such as war with Pakistan in 1971, substantial expenditure on account of Bangladesh refugees, oil price hike etc. Besides, the reluctance on the part of the states to mobilise adequate resources, their general financial indiscipline
and overdrafts from the Reserve Bank also compelled the government to take resort to deficit financing.

111 view of severe inflationary pressures in the economy since
1972-73. the draft fifth plan 1974-79 laid utmost stress on
non-inflationary methods of financing. But. as against the target of
Rs. 1354 crore for the fifth five year plan, the actual amount of
deficit financing was much more.

During this period, although the money supply increased by about 50
per cent, the overall increase in wholesale prices was 33% because of
the imposition of emergency in 1975 resulting in comfortable position
in regard to the availability of sever:l commodities through the
effective management of supplies.

During the sixth plan (1980-8.5) deficit financing was of the order of
Rs. 15.681 crore as against the estimated target of Rs. 5000 crore.
During this period money supply increased from Rs. 23,117 crore-in
1980-81 to Rs. 39,380 crore in 1984-85. Seventh plan paper indicated a
cautious approach towards deficit financing and stated that "The
required resources have to be mobilised in a manner which minimise
dependence on external sources or on deficit financing which has a
high inflationary potential." Still the target for deficit financing
was placed at Rs, l1,OOU crore and according to the latest estimates
the actual deficit financing has been of the order of Rs. 34,182 crore
i.e. more than 2.4 times the target. Money supply with the public has
increased from Rs. 43.599 crore in 1985-86 to Rs. 76.259 crore in
1988-89 and index of..wholesale prices has gone up from 357.8 to 435.8
during the same period.

seidhivalaiyam.in said...

Hi

உங்களுடைய வலைப்பதிவு இணைப்பை எங்களது தமிழ் இணையமான www.seidhivalaiyam.inல் பதித்துள்ளோம். அதை இங்கு சரி பார்த்து கொள்ளவும்.

உங்களது புதிய வலைப்பதிவை உடனுக்குடன் பதித்துக்கொள்ள இந்த தமிழ் இணையத்தில் தங்களை பதிவு செய்து கொள்ளவும்.

நட்புடன்
செய்திவளையம் குழுவிநர்

Krishnan said...

The Union Budget doesn't mean squat to a country like India. The budget, after all, is a bunch of ideas and propositions. They usually look good on paper. Where we falter pathetically is the execution part. The government introduces projects like NREGA where there is no scope for accountability whatsoever. So, instead of pumping the funds into the market, our beloved leaders siphon off millions for their own personal uses. The result, we are back to square one.

புருனோ Bruno said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Karthik said...

Dude
You freaking rock. I followed your intense debate in Vinavu for the last two three months. It is really heartening to see somebody with the libertarian philosophy in TN where there is a rampant entitlement culture. I just want to give you kudos for your enterprential spirit. Hope to see more postings from you in creating a right of center movement in TN and India especially with the current crisis in BJP we need a new party to take on the statist CONgress party. Also if possible check out http://offstumped.wordpress.com/
where a group of people are developing a framework for a new right of center movement. Keep up the good work in Vinavu I am rooting for you.
Cheers

Karthik said...

Keep writing too. I constantly check your blog for any updates even if I don't comment much.

K.R.அதியமான் said...

Karthik,

thanks for your comments.
don't worry about the trouble within BJP. it may take them away from the hindthuva ajenda for good. and that is best for all.

I was a member of the now defunct Lok Paritran party started by ex-IITians and worked in 2006 elections in chennai. although i did not like the slight hindthuthva flavour of its leaders, i liked the raw idealism and energy in the party. it was a good experience.

SUNRAYS said...

Sir, I dont know english writing...but in tamil...
all your writings are very superb..
really i like it...

kathiravan